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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 82

Buffalo Bills 6 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(2:48) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 48 yards to HOU 34, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.18 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 82, worth -4.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.48 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 40, worth -2.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model