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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 22

Buffalo Bills 19 – Houston Texans 23

What Actually Happened

(:24) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 5-J.Palmer INTERCEPTED by 2-C.Bullock at HOU 9. 2-C.Bullock to HOU 9 for no gain (5-J.Palmer). Penalty on BUF-13-G.Davis, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
What Happened
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +3.04 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 22, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +2.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.72 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 32, worth -0.32 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.35 EP