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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 55

Houston Texans 23 – Buffalo Bills 19

What Actually Happened

(2:57) 6-T.Townsend punts 41 yards to BUF 14, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 10-K.Shakir ran ob at BUF 18 for 4 yards (44-B.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.81 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 55, worth -2.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 16, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP