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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 20

Buffalo Bills 16 – Houston Texans 23

What Actually Happened

(5:48) 15-M.Prater 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.12 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 20, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 30, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model