Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 74

Houston Texans 23 – Buffalo Bills 16

(9:21) 6-T.Townsend punts 47 yards to BUF 27, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 10-K.Shakir to BUF 38 for 11 yards (45-E.Speed).

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.60 EP
62% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 74, worth -4.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model