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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Buffalo Bills
4th & 1 at the 23
Buffalo Bills 16 – Houston Texans 23
What Actually Happened
(10:14) 4-J.Cook right guard to HOU 25 for -2 yards (90-S.Rankins).
The Three Options
GO
+2.64 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.38 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 23, worth -1.10 EP
KICK
+1.24 EP
- 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
- 10% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 33, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT
-0.36 EP
- Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
