4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 8

Houston Texans 20 – Buffalo Bills 16

What Actually Happened

(:21) 15-K.Fairbairn 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +2.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.38 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 8, worth +0.25 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP