Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 50

Houston Texans 20 – Buffalo Bills 16

(5:55) 6-T.Townsend punts 42 yards to BUF 8, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 10-K.Shakir.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.08 EP
60% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 50, worth -2.66 EP

KICK -0.99 EP

37% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
63% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model