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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 72

Buffalo Bills 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(12:46) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle to BUF 31 for 3 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair).

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +0.98 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 72, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.95 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 30, worth -1.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model