Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 16 at the 75

Houston Texans 20 – Buffalo Bills 16

What Actually Happened

(9:15) 6-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to BUF 19, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 10-K.Shakir to BUF 12 for -7 yards (33-D.Ogunbowale). PENALTY on BUF-39-C.Lewis, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at BUF 19.

The Three Options

GO -2.35 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.17 EP
70% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 75, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model