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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 25

Houston Texans 10 – Buffalo Bills 9

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 15-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.63 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25, worth -0.86 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 35, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model