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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 24

Houston Texans 3 – Buffalo Bills 9

What Actually Happened

(6:56) (Shotgun) 27-W.Marks left tackle to BUF 18 for 6 yards (7-Ta.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +2.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.53 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
  • 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 34, worth -1.39 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model