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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 37

Buffalo Bills 6 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(11:49) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 26-Ty.Johnson ran ob at HOU 14 for 23 yards.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.34 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 37, worth -2.24 EP
KICK -0.10 EP
  • 69% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.16 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.90 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model