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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 62

New Orleans Saints 0 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(:28) 32-K.Kroeger punts 39 yards to ATL 23, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-43-M.Davis.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.41 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 62, worth -2.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.10 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 21, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP