4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 29

New Orleans Saints 10 – Atlanta Falcons 24

What Actually Happened

(:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left intended for 12-C.Olave INTERCEPTED by 31-X.Watts at ATL -8. Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +1.57 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 29, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.92 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 39, worth -0.22 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.87 EP