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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 11 at the 43

Atlanta Falcons 24 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(3:09) 13-B.Pinion punts 31 yards to NO 12, Center-49-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-40-J.Bertrand.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +2.90 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 43, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.46 EP