Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 15 at the 71

New Orleans Saints 10 – Atlanta Falcons 24

(3:34) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 11-D.Pettis to NO 43 for 14 yards (20-D.Alford).

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP

What Happened

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.60 EP
72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 71, worth -3.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.12 EP