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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 7

New Orleans Saints 7 – Atlanta Falcons 16

What Actually Happened

(14:19) 7-T.Hill right tackle to ATL 5 for 2 yards (56-L.Floyd).

The Three Options

GO +3.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.57 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 7, worth +0.30 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model