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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 50

New Orleans Saints 7 – Atlanta Falcons 16

What Actually Happened

(3:40) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 7-T.Hill. 7-T.Hill left guard to ATL 48 for 2 yards (55-K.Elliss; 93-K.Street).

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.83 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 50, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -1.06 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model