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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 1

New Orleans Saints 7 – Atlanta Falcons 16

What Actually Happened

(7:38) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 7-T.Hill. 7-T.Hill pass incomplete short right to 14-D.Vele (36-R.Harrison).

The Three Options

GO +3.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.75 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 1, worth +0.64 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model