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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 53

Atlanta Falcons 13 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(:34) Direct snap to 84-F.Franks. 84-F.Franks up the middle to ATL 49 for 2 yards (21-J.Reid).

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +1.65 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 53, worth -1.73 EP
KICK -0.38 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 15, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model