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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 29

New Orleans Saints 7 – Atlanta Falcons 13

What Actually Happened

(:56) 19-B.Grupe 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.08 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 29, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 39, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model