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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 23

Atlanta Falcons 10 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 45-Z.Gonzalez 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. Penalty on NO-44-I.Stalbird, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.83 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 23, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 33, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model