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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 72

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(13:30) 13-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to NO 31, Center-49-L.McCullough. 11-D.Pettis ran ob at NO 42 for 11 yards (23-D.Hellams; 25-T.Allgeier).

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.64 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 72, worth -4.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 30, worth -2.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model