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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 13 at the 24

Los Angeles Chargers 22 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(4:58) 11-C.Dicker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.09 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.24 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model