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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 37

Los Angeles Chargers 15 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(:49) 11-C.Dicker 55 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.57 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.64 EP
What Happened
  • 69% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP