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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 41

Los Angeles Chargers 12 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(6:12) 11-C.Dicker 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.64 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.53 EP
KICK +0.33 EP
What Happened
  • 60% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT +0.46 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP