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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 73

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 12

What Actually Happened

(8:48) 3-C.Waitman punts 45 yards to LAC 28, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 12-D.Davis to LAC 36 for 8 yards (10-R.Wilson). PENALTY on LAC-58-M.Wax, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 33.

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.00 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model