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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 70

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 5

What Actually Happened

(5:55) 3-C.Waitman punts 51 yards to LAC 19, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.60 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model