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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 59

Green Bay Packers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 19-D.Whelan punts 56 yards to PHI 3, Center-42-M.Orzech. 87-X.Gipson to PHI 21 for 18 yards (33-E.Williams; 39-Z.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.82 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 59, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 18, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP