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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 20 at the 49

Green Bay Packers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(9:42) 19-D.Whelan punts 40 yards to PHI 9, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 87-X.Gipson.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.30 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -1.07 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model