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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 58

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:40) 10-B.Mann punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Touchback. PHI-48-P.Johnson was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.71 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 58, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model