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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 59

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(:05) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep right.

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +0.25 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 59, worth -1.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.60 EP