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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 53

Carolina Panthers 7 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(:56) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to NO 2, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.06 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 53, worth -2.73 EP
KICK -1.70 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 15, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP