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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 2

New Orleans Saints 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:55) 19-B.Grupe 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO +2.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.23 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 2, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP