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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 30

Carolina Panthers 7 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(6:36) 10-R.Fitzgerald 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-N.Shepherd), Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin, recovered by CAR-68-D.Lewis at NO 30. The Replay Official reviewed the kick touched ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 10-R.Fitzgerald 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-N.Shepherd), Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. 94-C.Jordan MUFFS catch at NO 29, RECOVERED by CAR-68-D.Lewis at NO 30.

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.56 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
What Happened
  • 76% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 40, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model