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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 55

New Orleans Saints 10 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(12:57) 32-K.Kroeger punts 45 yards to CAR 10, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 23-T.Etienne.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.66 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 55, worth -3.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP