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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 60

New Orleans Saints 10 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:21) 32-K.Kroeger punts 52 yards to CAR 8, Center-49-Z.Wood. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 13 for 5 yards (44-I.Stalbird).

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.16 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model