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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 55

Carolina Panthers 7 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(7:51) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to NO 8, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-D.Pettis.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.77 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 55, worth -2.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 16, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP