Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 13 at the 83

Denver Broncos 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(1:40) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 51 yards to LV 32, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 81-A.Bachman to LV 42 for 10 yards (34-J.Skinner). PENALTY on LV-30-D.Holmes, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 32.

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.67 EP
65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 83, worth -4.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model