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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 89

Denver Broncos 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(7:12) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 30 yards to DEN 41, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.44 EP
  • 24% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 89, worth -4.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.28 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 46, worth -2.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EP