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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 16 at the 48

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(8:42) 6-A.Cole punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.65 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 48, worth -2.51 EP
KICK -1.22 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model