Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 63

Denver Broncos 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(13:01) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 45 yards to LV 18, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 81-A.Bachman to LV 21 for 3 yards (46-A.Prentice; 82-A.Trautman). ** Injury Update: LV-27-T.McCollum has returned to the game. PENALTY on LV-23-D.Laube, Illegal Blindside Block, 10 yards, enforced at LV 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.29 EP
54% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 63, worth -3.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model