Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 11 at the 70

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(13:56) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to DEN 28, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds. PENALTY on LV-25-D.Richardson, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 28.

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.51 EP
69% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 70, worth -3.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model