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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 63

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(12:27) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to DEN 16, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 83-M.Bandy.

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.65 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 63, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 21, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP