Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 12 at the 93

Denver Broncos 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(14:03) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 54 yards to LV 39, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 81-A.Bachman pushed ob at DEN 46 for 15 yards (92-D.Tillman). PENALTY on LV-27-T.McCollum, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 39.

The Three Options

GO -2.92 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.96 EP
62% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 93, worth -5.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model