4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 12 at the 67

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 6-A.Cole punts 39 yards to DEN 28, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 83-M.Bandy to DEN 27 for -1 yards (50-J.Bobenmoyer; 44-T.Eichenberg).

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.15 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 67, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 25, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model