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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 38

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(6:03) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at DEN 47 for -9 yards (9-T.Hufanga).

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.62 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 38, worth -2.05 EP
KICK -0.22 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.47 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 47, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model