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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 90

Denver Broncos 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(7:46) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 38 yards to DEN 48, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds. PENALTY on DEN-34-J.Skinner, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 48.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.49 EP
  • 24% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 90, worth -5.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.50 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 47, worth -2.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.67 EP