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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 12 at the 41

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(9:06) 6-A.Cole punts 40 yards to DEN 1, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.99 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 41, worth -2.24 EP
KICK -0.70 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.88 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model